Governments are failing to properly prepare for a wave of catastrophic threats to humanity such as the rise of robots and ‘off-the-shelf’ deadly viruses, scientists argue.
Super volcanoes, asteroid strikes and nuclear war are also threats that could wipe out swathes of humanity and are more likely to occur than many realise, according to researchers at Oxford University.
Their report, Global Catastrophic Risks, ranks dangers that could kill off 10 percent or more of the human population.
It warns that while most generations never experience a catastrophe, the possibility of such an event is far from fanciful, as shown by the 1918 Spanish flu, which wiped out millions.
Sebastian Farquhar, director at Oxford’s Global Priorities Project, said: “There are some things that are on the horizon – things that probably won’t happen in any one year but could happen – which could completely reshape our world and do so in a really devastating and disastrous way.
“History teaches us that many of these things are more likely than we intuitively think.”
The report forecasts that the biggest threat to humanity over the next five years comes from asteroids, super volcanic eruptions or other ‘unknown risks’.
In the long term, however, it is natural and ‘engineered’ pandemics, nuclear war and catastrophic climate change that pose the greatest threat, as well as the development of artificial intelligence (AI).
“There is really no particular reason to think that humans are the pinnacle of creation and the best thing that is possible to have in the world,” said Mr Farquar.
“It seems conceivable that some AI systems might at some point in the future be able to systematically out-compete humans in a bunch of different domains.
“If you have a sufficiently powerful form of that kind of artificially intelligent system and its goals don’t match with what humanity’s values are, then there might be some sort of adverse consequences.
“This doesn’t depend on it becoming conscious, it doesn’t depend on it hating humanity, it is just a matter of it being powerful, its objectives being opaque or hard to determine for its creators, and it being in some sense indifferent to at least some of the things we find valuable.”
The report found that new threats, such as the rise of synthetic biology, could open the door for ‘off-the-shelf’ deadly viruses.
Mr Farquhar said that in time militant groups such as Islamic State might be able to manufacture their own diseases, such as ordering the parts for smallpox virus over the internet.
“We have seen that in the field of synthetic biology and genetic manipulation of small organisms or things like viruses, the cost has come down unbelievably in the last decade,” he said.
“It is still too expensive to worry about rogue groups trying to use the technology, but that might not remain true.”
The report calls for the international community to improve planning coordination for pandemics, investigate the possible risks of AI and biotechnology and continue to cut the number of nuclear weapons.
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