Thursday, March 8, 2012

X5.4 Solar Flare Hit Earth at 5:45am EST March 8 Geomagnetic Storm Underway

A strong geomagnetic storm is predicted to begin in the predawn hours Eastern Standard Time (about 08:00UST).



NASA Observed a major X5.4 coronal mass ejection (CME) early on March 7. It produced a strong radio blackout event and a strong radiation event for spacecraft yesterday. Today it is expected to hit the earth's magnetic field causing auroras which may be observed well south of normal viewing locations. The strong geomagnetic storm has not been predicted to cause major effects to communication or power systems.



No one knows exactly why, but geomagnetic storms are more effective around the spring and fall equinoxes. The intensity of a geomagnetic storm is affected by more factors than the strength and direction of the solar flare.
Update 2 Information from swpc.noaa.gov
The geomagnetic storm has begun but so far the magnetic field is oriented north. If the field reverses to south, as it frequently does near the equinoxes, the storm will intensify.
2012-03-08 11:32 UTC  Geomagnetic Storm has Started, Solar Radiation Storm Continues The coronal mass ejection (CME) associated with the R3 (Strong) Radio Blackout event from 0024 UTC March 7 (7:24 p.m. EST March 6) arrived at ACE at 1045 UTC today (5:45 a.m. EST March 8).  So far the orientation of the magnetic field has been opposite of what is needed to cause the strongest storming.  As the event progresses, that field will continue to change.  Based on overall strength, the predictions for periods reaching the G3 level look justified.  Additionally, the Solar Radiation Storm levels remain above the S3 (Strong) threshold at this time, with values rising at the moment with the shock arrival. Region 1429 remains potent and subsequent activity is certainly possible. Updates here as conditions warrant.
........................................Forecast last night EST.........................................
Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be active initially on day 1 (08 March) but is expected to increase to major storm levels with a likelihood for isolated severe storm levels after the arrival of the CME from today's X5/full halo event. The arrival time is estimated to be sometime between 0600-1000Z. Minor to major storm levels are expected to continue partway (6-12 hours) into the second day (09 March), but a decline to predominantly active levels is expected for the remainder of the day. Predominantly unsettled levels are expected for the third day (10 March). The greater than 10 MeV proton event is expected to continue through the first day and is also likely to continue partway through the second day. The greater than 100 Mev proton event is expected to slowly decline over the next 24 hours.
.......................................end last night's forecast........................................
Animated NASA forecast track here.
2012-03-08 03:18 UTC  Solar Radiation Storm Continues, Geomagnetic Storming Expected The coronal mass ejection (CME) associated with the R3 (Strong) Radio Blackout event from 0024 UTC March 7 (7:24 p.m. EST March 6) is forecast to pass ACE early morning UTC on March 8 (start of day EST March 8). Geomagnetic storm periods reaching the G3 (Strong) level are likely as a result.  Additionally, the Solar Radiation Storm levels remain above the S3 (Strong) threshold at this time. Region 1429 remains potent and subsequent activity is certainly possible. Updates here as conditions warrant.


Jim in IA recently discussed the GeeMack videos and Solar Dynamics Observatory. Jim's post has a number of links to source materials on solar activity and space weather.
Palantir recently presented a detailed discussion on the Solar Dynamics Observatory.
UPDATE
Here's an amazing video that gives an explanation of auroras that's understandable to a general audience and this writer.











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